Pictures: Netflix
In 2023, Hollywood ground to a halt with strikes from the two biggest guilds that keep the gears of your favorite movies and series moving. Thankfully, an agreement eventually came late in the year, and as part of that, a streaming bonus was put in place. We’ve already analyzed which shows would have been eligible in 2023, but what about the 2024 roster of shows and movies?
As a reminder, here’s how the “streaming bonus” works:
“The bonus—equal to 50% of the applicable fixed residual—will be paid for made-for-HBSVOD features and all episodes of seasons of made-for-HBSVOD series that reach a ‘‘performance metric” of 20% or more on the domestic service within the first 90 days of exhibition, or the first 90 days of any subsequent year of exhibition. The performance metric is calculated based on the number of domestic views divided by number of domestic subscribers, and views are calculated as total aggregated domestic hours viewed for all episodes of a season, or for a feature, with hours calculated in increments of 0.1 hour (i.e., 6 minutes) divided by the total runtime of the program.”
How to Calculate Viewership for the Streaming Bonus
At this point, before we get into the weeds, we should add a disclaimer about these upcoming figures. Because there are so many moving parts here, and all the statistics should be taken with caution.
What is the viewership threshold required to qualify for the Streaming Bonus?
It’s (relatively) simple: a title must accumulate as many or more Complete Viewing Equivalents (CVEs) (or views) as 20% of the U.S. subscriber base of the streaming service as of July 1 of the given year within 90 days of availability.
How many subscribers does Netflix have in the U.S.?
This is where things start to get uncertain. In July 2024, Netflix had 84 million paying subscribers in the U.S. and Canada (the UCAN region). To estimate the number of U.S. subscribers, a common approach is subtracting 10%, giving an approximate total of 76 million Netflix subscribers in the U.S.
What is the viewership threshold?
20% of 76 million subscribers results in a threshold of 15.2 million CVEs within 90 days for Netflix titles. However, if the actual U.S. subscriber count is higher, the threshold increases accordingly. If it’s lower, the threshold decreases. Each streaming service has different thresholds based on their U.S. subscriber numbers.
What data will we be using to determine if a title has surpassed this threshold?
Here’s where additional uncertainties come into play:
- Nielsen’s methodology – Nielsen only tracks viewership on TVs, omitting views from smartphones, PCs, etc. This means a significant portion of viewership is not accounted for in their data.
- Lack of data beyond the first few weeks – Most titles drop out of Nielsen’s Top 10 after a few weeks, making it difficult to assess their 90-day performance. Fortunately, I have some comparison models that estimate viewership trends between Day 14/28 and Day 90, allowing me to outline a potential viewership range at 90 days. However, each title behaves differently, so actual numbers could fall outside this estimated range.
How many Netflix Films Got The Streaming Bonus in 2024?
Among Netflix’s 2024 films, 15 titles reached the threshold within the first 14 to 21 days of release. Additionally, I estimate that five more likely crossed the threshold by the 90-day mark. This means that just under half of Netflix’s films in 2024 successfully qualified for the Streaming Bonus.
Comfortably getting the bonus by our analysis are the biggest movie hits of the week of the year such as Carry-On, Damsel, Beverly Hills Cop, The Union, and Rebel Ridge. At the cut-off are movies like Find Me Falling, Saving Bikini Bottom: The Sandy Cheeks Movie, and Spellbound.
For the others, it’s more complicated, if not nearly impossible, to get the Bonus. Among the likely “losers,” notable examples include Rebel Moon: Part 2 by Zack Snyder and Spaceman, starring Adam Sandler. Prestige films also struggled to stand out, such as Shirley, His Three Daughters, and even The Piano Lesson, Maria and Emilia Perez.
Click to get a full-size version.
How many Netflix Series Got The Streaming Bonus in 2024?
For series, it’s important to remember that Nielsen’s methodology combines viewership from all seasons of a show, while the Streaming Bonus applies only to specific seasons. This means that Nielsen’s numbers are unusable as-is for series that returned in 2024 with a new season.
When focusing on new U.S. series from 2024, the picture is less favorable than for films, with only 37% of them reaching the required viewership for the Streaming Bonus. None of these series managed to cross the threshold within their visible run in Nielsen’s Top 10, although The Perfect Couple came close.
Note: Fool Me Once is not included in this chart because it’s a British series and, therefore, not eligible for the Streaming Bonus.
At the bottom of the ranking, 3 Body Problem and The Madness are unlikely to qualify for the Streaming Bonus. Once again, the reasons behind the cancellation of The Brothers Sun and Dead Boy Detectives are quite telling on the chart.
Note: An expanded version of this list, also looking into Disney+, Prime Video, and Apple TV+ titles (among others), can be found on the Netflix & Chiffres substack.
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