Pictures: Netflix
Welcome back to another Netflix top 10 report, which comes hot off the heels of the US election results. The Diplomat may have hoped to capitalize on election season but is showing a significant fall in viewership despite Netflix throwing a lot of marketing at the new season. We’ll look into that and lots more below.
Note: In this report of Netflix’s hours viewed from October 28th, 2024, to November 3rd, 2024, we’ll use “Complete Viewings Equivalent,” or CVE, expressed in millions. That means we divide the hours viewed announced by Netflix by the runtime of films or series. It allows for better comparisons between films and series, but it’s not an audience metric. It is the minimum number of viewings if they were all complete from the first second to the last of the film or season.
1. A victory lap for Outer Banks.
Outer Banks has been renewed for a fifth and final season, and if you remember, a few weeks back, that was exactly our prediction based on the numbers for the first four days of the launch of season 4A. This highlights something we have known for a long time now: the number of “views” can’t tell the whole story about the fate of a series, but more often than not, they are all we need to know to bet with good accuracy if Netflix is going to renew it or not.
2. The Diplomat fails to reignite the passion.
After a very well-received first season, the renewal of The Diplomat made sense, as the series surpassed the magical threshold of 20 million CVEs in its first 14 days. However, season 2, released last week, isn’t following quite the same trajectory, showing a noticeable drop in its first 4 days compared to season 1.
Fortunately for the series, it has already been renewed for a third season, although I regret to inform you that, based on the initial viewership numbers for season 2, it will likely be its last. Without this early renewal, it would likely have been canceled in just a few weeks without further discussion.
When compared to other series that were renewed for a third season ahead of season 2’s release, The Diplomat starts below Vikings: Valhalla (which ended with season 3), Sweet Tooth (also ended with season 3), and well above That ’90s Show (canceled after its third season). Barring any major surprise, the series is not expected to continue beyond its upcoming third season.
3. Time Cut Shows Sign of Life for Netflix’s Halloween Movie Slate
Time Cut, the horror movie with a time-travel twist starring two Netflix stars—Madison Bailey from Outer Banks and Antonia Gentry from Ginny & Georgia—is off to a strong start. With 22.9M CVEs in 5 days, it ranks as the 8th-best debut for an English-language Netflix film released on a Wednesday since June 2021.
4. Martha
Though Martha Stewart is a well-known businesswoman, author, and former TV host in the U.S., her fame doesn’t seem to extend much beyond North America and Eastern Europe. With only 6.1M CVEs in 5 days, the documentary about her isn’t exactly making waves.
5. The Manhattan Alien Abduction
With an eye-catching title and thumbnail, The Manhattan Alien Abduction seemed poised to draw viewers in, but subscribers didn’t take the bait. The short docuseries, running just under two hours, debuted with only 4M CVEs in 5 days.
6. The Law According to Lidia Poet
The Italian series The Law According To Lidia Poët returned for its second season but struggled last week, with only 2.2M CVEs in 5 days—just a third of its first season’s debut last year. This is already concerning, and season 2 likely won’t achieve in 14 or 28 days what season 1 did in just 4 days. I predict the series will be canceled, with no season 3.
7. Netflix’s Busy Week of New International Series Releases
Last week, Netflix released a whopping six new seasons of series in just two days, and on the international front, it seems as if that plan was pretty damaging to viewership, with no true breakout series to speak of. A likely casualty of this crowded release schedule is the Thai series Don’t Come Home, which debuted with 2.9M CVEs in 4 days—among the lowest launches for comparable series this year.
The launch of the German series Murder Mindfully has also been fairly average, landing squarely in the middle range for European series premieres on a Thursday in 2024, with 2.7M CVEs.
Another victim of the crowded release schedule is the Brazilian miniseries Children of the Church Steps, which garnered only 2M CVEs in 5 days, placing it among the lowest launches for comparable series in 2024.
Finally, the Polish series Go Ahead, Brother had an OK start considering, with 3.6M CVEs in 5 days, aligning with this year’s average for a new European series.
That’s all for this week, feel free to let us know what you think in the comments below.
