Pictured: Supacell, Vikings: Valhalla, Exploding Kittens / Netflix
Welcome to an expanded Netflix top 10 report this week, as there’s much to cover. We look into why Netflix likely decided not to give Vikings: Valhalla a season 4 well in advance, why Supacell is eying a season 2 renewal, how well all the new international films debuted last week, plus two flops: Exploding Kittens and Receiver.
In case you missed it yesterday, we published a look back at the first half of 2024, looking into the biggest new and returning series, movies, and documentaries broken down by language where appropriate.
Note: In this report of Netflix’s hours viewed from July 8th, 2024, to July 14th, 2024, we’ll use “Complete Viewings Equivalent,” or CVE, expressed in millions. That means we divide the hours viewed announced by Netflix by the runtime of films or series. It allows for better comparisons between films and series, but it’s not an audience metric. It is the minimum number of viewings if they were all complete from the first second to the last of the film or season.
1. Vikings: Valhalla’s woes might shed light on the two-season renewal process at Netflix.
Vikings: Valhalla is an excellent example of the kind of calculations Netflix has to do when it comes to renewing or not one of its series. Season 1 of the Vikings spin-off did great back in 2022, and because it did great, it was already renewed for two new seasons. At the time, I assumed it was because of its success, but now, I’m not so sure, as maybe Netflix figured out that the series would lose viewership and that three seasons were enough to tell a convincing story and not cancel it.
The problem with CVEs is that they do not show us the decay between the first episode and the last of the season, and presumably, the viewership from the previous episode is what you will have to start with when a new season comes along. The higher the decay rate during the season, the lower the next season will start off, and we had a great example of that just a few weeks ago with season 2 of That 90s Show, another show that was renewed for two seasons after its debut season. Sweet Tooth also comes to mind.
Some two-season renewals, such as Ginny & Georgia and Bridgerton, do not fit this profile. In those cases, the two-season renewal came after season 2, not season 1, which makes me think that a two-season renewal after the first season is a sign of a significant in-season drop-off. However, Netflix is still willing to give the series a satisfying closure because of how well it did regardless (think also Avatar: The Last Airbender or 3 Body Problem). In contrast, a two-season renewal after a second or third season indicates a more stable in-season drop and a way for Netflix to bet on those series to be even bigger (as Bridgerton did with its season 3).
Back to Vikings: Valhalla, the third and final season, came out last week, and as you can see on the chart, it did less than season 2, which in turn did less than season 1.
2. Supacell should be renewed.
The British series Supacell is still doing great numbers out there and it crossed the 20M CVEs threshold, that is usually a surefire sign of a renewal.
However, in the United Kingdom, Netflix has been a bit slow to announce any updates on its shows this year, such as The Gentlemen, Bodkin, or Geek Girl. So we might need to wait a bit, but we’re very confident.
Here’s how Supacell looks stacked up against 3 Body Problem, The Gentlemen, Avatar: The Last Airbender, and Geek Girl after two weeks:
3. A slew of international films with various fates.
Netflix released many international films last week, all managing to make their way into the Top 10, so let’s see how they did.
First up is the Italian thriller Vanished Into the Night, which did a grand launch with 14.9M CVEs over its first 4 days. That’s another solid success from Netflix Italy after The Tearsmith.
Hailing from South Africa, the romantic comedy Lobola Man also had a good launch, considering it’s a romantic comedy rather than an action film, with 2.2M CVEs over its first three days.
Now, onto the flops. German rom-com Blame the Game had the worst launch for a Netflix German film released on a Friday, proving that for a Netflix German film to do big numbers, it has to be a genre film.
In Spain, Netflix released a film set in the world of football which seemed like a good idea in the week leading up to the finals of the Euro but that film did not resonate with the audiences and it scored the worst launch for a Spanish film released on a Friday (by a mile).
Finally, Netflix India will not unlock the mystery of how its original films are not performing on a global scale with Wild Wild Punjab as the film only launched with 2.6M CVEs during its first five days.
4. Receiver drops the ball.
The unofficial sequel season to Quarterback is yet another example of how Netflix general audiences could not care less about American football as the sports-adjacent series launched with 2.2M CVEs over its first six days, less than what SPRINT did last week (and that was not a good number either).
Netflix might throw everything it has at the wall in the sports-adjacent programming category, but nothing seems to stick especially not the NFL. The big test is coming up, though, as in less than 6 months, Netflix will broadcast its first 2 NFL games on Christmas Day.
5. Exploding Kittens exploded mid-air.
For reasons only known to Netflix, the streamer seemed to have big ambitions for its animated series Exploding Kittens based on an existing license, with the videogame being part of Netflix’s mobile offering.
The long-teased series crashed and burned in its opening week, scoring only 1.6M CVEs during its first three days, one of the worst launches on record for an animated series.
6. Another Self is holding quite steady.
The second season of the Turkish series Another Self came back, and contrary to Vikings: Valhalla, the decay rate between seasons 1 and 2 is not that big. Season 2 launched with 2.1M CVEs in its first four days (compared to 2.3M for the first four days of Season 1).
A renewal might be on the cards for the series.
That’s all for this week. Please let us know what you think in the comments below.
