Pictured: The Lincoln Lawyer, The Out-Laws and The Witcher
Welcome to your weekly rundown of the biggest stories from Netflix’s top 10 hourly figures drop for the week ending July 9th, 2023.
Every Tuesday, Netflix updates its top 10 stats page with 40 new hourly figures of the top movies and shows of the past seven days. If you want to browse the top 10 hourly data easily, visit our tool.
Note: In this report of Netflix’s hours viewed from July 3rd, 2023 to July 9th, 2023, we’ll use “Complete Viewings Equivalent,” or CVE, expressed in millions. That is the same metric used now by Netflix in its Top 10 following the June 2023 update in methodology. It allows for better comparisons between films and series, but it’s not an audience metric. It is the minimum number of viewings if they were all complete from the first second to the last of the film or season.
1. The Out-Laws is a B-tier movie
When looking at all the opening weekends for Netflix films in 2023, a clear typology of films emerges.
First, there are the Top tier films that launch with 42.8-42.9M CVEs over their first three days (think Murder Mystery 2, The Mother, Extraction 2).
Then you have the A minus tier list of around 27-28M CVEs (You People, Your Place or Mine) followed by the B-tier list of films that launch with 19M CVEs.
Finally, you have family films (usually with animals, like Chupa or Dog Gone) and, at the bottom, rom-coms.
The Out-Laws is assuredly a B-tier list film and in that sense, it probably did what Netflix expected of it with 19.6M CVEs over its first week-end.
Since January, Netflix has been releasing a Top or A-tier list of US films paired with a B-tier list movie or under, and for July, the A-tier film will probably be They Cloned Tyrone. In August, it will be Heart of Stone and so forth.
So, well done, The Out-Laws, your job is done and you probably won’t be needed for a sequel.
2. Some international misfires on the film side.
Sometimes, Netflix scores big with international films; sometimes, it doesn’t. Last week was a “doesn’t” week with the failed launches of the French heist movie Gold Bricks (or “Cash” in French. Well, not in French but in English in France, you get me) with only 3.4M CVEs over its first four days, one of the worst launches for a European film released on a Thursday over the last two years.
Cash Netflix movie CVE viewership vs other Netflix movies
Same fate for Filipino rom-com Seasons which managed to become the worst launch for a new Netflix Asian rom-com released on a Friday.
Finally, a quick revisit for Through My Window 2. It will not replicate the success of the first film that still stands at #3 on the all-time Top 10 most popular international films and it will be lucky to do just half of what the first film did. That’s quite the misfire, and there’s a third film releasing in 2024.
3. WHAM! launches with a (careless) whisper.
Critics and audiences seem to like the new Netflix documentary about the famous pop band Wham! but it failed to resonate with a larger audience as the doc launched with 4.4M CVEs over its first 5 days, the worst opening for a documentary released on a Wednesday. Let’s see if the audiences wake up before the doc goes goes out of the Top 10.
4. The Witcher weakens in its second week
With a relatively poor launch in week 1 things have not exactly improved in week 2 with season 3 of The Witcher now suffering a very steep drop from the launch of season 2.
The Witcher Season 3 vs season 2 Netflix viewership
Split release, quality, the fact that it’s released in the summer when last season was released in the winter… Name your pick as the likely explanation as to why this is happening. Season 4 will need to be a soft reboot or it might very well be the last season.
5. The Lincoln Lawyer comes back, same as ever
The split release is too for The Lincoln Lawyer, which came back for season 2A last Thursday. Its launch was moderately good with 7.4M CVEs, although it’s no blockbuster either.
The Lincoln Lawyer season 2 a vs other Netflix Original shows
When we compare with the launch of season 1, we can see that so far it does exactly like the launch of season 1, which picked up in its second week.
The Lincoln Lawyer season 1 vs season 2 CVE viewership
Will it be the same here? My guess is not really, as split releases do not often lead to a big increase in week 2, since there are less episodes to watch but stay tuned for more next week!
